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| Name | Putin's closest ally - Could Belarus successfully invade Ukraine (probably not) |
| Video Uploader | Video From Perun |
| Upload Date | This Video Uploaded At 17-07-2022 08:32:12 |
| Video Discription | Before February 24th, there probably weren't many Western commentators that would have bet on a post-soviet state of 9 million people taking on a significant strategic role in deciding the fate of Ukraine and European security. But these are strange times, and following a call in the comments of a previous video, I've decided to look at the current (and potential future) role of Belarus in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since Russian troops advanced into Ukraine from Belarusian territory in February, speculation has been rife that Belarusian dictator Lukashenko would send his own troops into battle alongside his Russian allies. Practically ever week brings a new series of articles announcing new mobilisation efforts or exercises in Belarus, and a heighted threat to Ukraine's Northern border. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Timestamps: 00:00 -- Opening Words 00:47 -- What am I covering? 01:37 -- How did we get here? 01:52 -- History 06:24 -- Belarus today 08:27 -- Europe's "Last Dictator" 09:53 -- Lukashenko's hold is not complete 14:22 -- Belariusian involvement 15:59 -- The Maybe Invasion 18:26 -- Hunting for a Casus Belli 20:47 -- The Belariusian Army 21:01 -- The "Good": A lot of metal 24:01 -- The "Oh...": Manpower 28:36 -- Intervention scenario 29:00 -- To Kyiv and victory 29:56 -- Fool me twice... 32:08 -- Serving the artery 33:20 -- Cutting off the hand 37:08 -- A grinding distraction 38:19 -- The question is why? 39:16 -- Why the Hesitation? 39:40 -- Internal Stability 46:36 -- The thing about stability 47:18 -- The economy 49:12 -- NATO response 51:09 -- What is there to gain? 53:38 -- The brief warning: "Crap" doesn't mean harmless 55:43 -- Conclusions 56:57 -- Channel Update Sources: Example of media coverage around the possibility of Belarus entering the war: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/22/will-belarus-join-the-war https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-fears-that-belarus-might-invade-on-russias-side-are-growing-185416 The "Colonel thing" - one example of reporting on this https://www.sb.by/en/lukashenko-putin-promised-me-the-rank-of-colonel-but-had-not-done-yet.html Chatham House Survey: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12uAiH_gLZAKhbtm_Gb6n2NsH1u7gYrtE/view Disclaimers and Caveats: At one point I say "Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv" in reference to cities that are along the "Belarusian front." That's just force of habit from describing cities threatened during the early phase of the war. It would be more accurate to say that Kyiv and Chernihiv are on the Belarusian facing front, Sumy obviously isn't. I gloss over the importance of Belarus' military industry - Russia is in fact dependent on Belarus for some critical inputs into some of its most sensitive military hardware. I want to stress again that I have nothing against the people of Belarus - this video is merely an attempt to illustrate the weaknesses the Belarusian military would have to overcome to be genuinely effective in an offensive operation The section on potential NATO responses should be taken as illustrative, and not a prediction that NATO would resort to any particular policy response or 'harassment' tactics in the event of a Belarusian offensive. It is instead intended to illustrate the vulnerability of the plan to potential escalatory (or debatably escalatory) responses. |
| Category | News & Politics |
| Tags | Russia | Ukraine | Belarus | Lukashenko |
