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Last October, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine would strike Russia's Black Sea Fleet wherever it will be stationed — implying that could also include occupied parts of Georgia, where Russia has kept a garrison and is rumored to be constructing a naval base. "We will reach them everywhere," the president said back then.
The remarks sent waves across Georgia, raising fears that the war could soon touch Georgia, which has gone a long way to distance itself from Ukraine and its fight, according to Kyiv İndependent mediaoutlet. Since then, Russia only sped up the construction of the base, which has the potential to drag the small South Caucasian country into a wider conflict.
As Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which has traditionally been stationed in occupied Crimea, has been hammered by Ukrainian attacks and largely forced to withdraw, Russia has sought a safe harbor further from Ukrainian drones and missiles.
Ochamchire, located over 700 kilometers southeast of the closest Ukrainian-controlled territory, has the potential to offer Moscow a new naval base largely out of reach from much of Ukraine's current long-range capabilities.
Details about the Ochamchire base, located in Abkhazia and occupied by Russia and its proxy forces since the 1990s, have been scant. Much of the analysis about the port has stemmed from satellite imagery and often contradictory statements from Abkhaz officials.
Nonetheless, the project — if completed to its full potential — could have significant implications for Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia.
Talks on the creation of a Russian naval base in Abkhazia date back long before the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Modern day Abkhazia is internationally recognized as Georgian territory, but has been under the rule of Abkhaz and Russian proxy officials since the 1990s.
The first Russian warships reportedly were deployed to Ochamchire in 2009, shortly after the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and the subsequent cementing of the occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Russia officially claims that Abkhazia is an independent country, currently recognized by four other states Venezuela, Nicaragua, Syria, and Nauru. The occupied region shares a land border with Russia and is fully dependent politically and economically on Moscow.
The plans to move part of Russia's Black Sea Fleet to Abkhazia gathered steam in the fall of 2023.
Zelensky's claim that "there is now no safe base and no completely reliable logistical route in Crimea and on the occupied parts of the Black Sea and Azov coast" was viewed by some in Georgia that Ukrainian missiles and naval drones could soon be hitting Russian ships moored in sovereign, yet occupied, Georgian territory.
The possibility only added fuel to the rhetoric from the governing Russian-friendly Georgian Dream party, members of which have regularly claimed that the West is trying to push Georgia into the war.
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