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Pakistan and India have been in permanent conflict since independence in 1947. Mass displacements and pogroms, 3 brutal wars and periodic border skirmishes. According to experts, the fourth war could be the most destructive. The sides ignore UN initiatives on reconciliation and have been actively arming themselves for the last 30 years.
What will happen if a nuclear war breaks out between India and Pakistan?
We will see everything now.
Stage 1: Initial Exchange.
On the first day of the nuclear conflict, Pakistan uses 10 low-yield tactical nuclear bombs near the borders and conducts airstrikes against Indian military groups. India retaliates with low-yield nuclear strikes in an attempt to eliminate Pakistan's ability to attack.
On the second day, the conflict continues, with Pakistan using 15 more tactical nuclear bombs on the battlefield and India firing salvos at the Pakistani garrison at Bahawalpur, as well as Pakistani airfields and nuclear weapons depots, partially worsening the situation. On the third day, the situation begins to escalate and Pakistan retaliates with nuclear ballistic and cruise missiles against garrisons, weapons depots, naval bases and airfields in 30 locations in Indian cities, plus tactical nuclear warheads. India responds symmetrically. Due to panic, anger, misunderstanding and protocols, the escalation can no longer be stopped.
Stage 2: escalation.
From the fourth to the seventh day, all Pakistan and Indian strategic nuclear capabilities are dropped on cities, infra-structural projects. In total, about just under a hundred nuclear warheads hit Pakistani urban areas with airbursts, and about the same number on Indian urban areas.
In addition, Pakistan and India have successfully used remnants of tactical nuclear weapons on targets outside urban areas.
As the conflict escalates, both countries are targeting additional strategic sites. India is expanding its strikes to include Rawalpindi, where Pakistan's military headquarters is located, and Faisalabad, a major industrial center. Pakistan responds with strikes on Kolkata, Chennai, and Ahmedabad in an effort to destroy India's economic infrastructure.
Stage 3: Fallout and regional catastrophe
Immediately afterward, the fallout spreads throughout South Asia. In cities such as Amritsar and Lahore, cases of radiation sickness increase dramatically. The Indus and Ganges rivers, vital to millions of people, become contaminated, affecting the water supply of downstream cities including Varanasi and Hyderabad (Sindh). Agricultural areas in both countries, Punjab in India and Pakistan, are affected by toxic rainfall, rendering fertile land infertile and leading to long-term food shortages.
Stage 4: Global Impact.
Huge amounts of dust and smoke released into the atmosphere cause global temperatures to drop significantly, starting a nuclear winter. Crop failure becomes widespread not only in South Asia, but around the world, including breadbaskets such as the United States, Ukraine, and Russia. As a result of the dramatic drop in food production, world hunger begins, affecting billions of people.
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