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| Name | S&P 500 Index(SPX) Weekly & Daily Chart Analysis: Long Term Chart Analysis |
| Video Uploader | Video From ATM Media |
| Upload Date | This Video Uploaded At 16-06-2024 05:00:25 |
| Video Discription | Last Week's Performance In our previous analysis, we noted, "The S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained a robust +1.32% following the prior week's bullish outside reversal day." This Week's Analysis The S&P 500 Index (SPX) continued its upward trajectory, adding +1.58% this week. However, the market breadth remains a concern. Despite achieving new highs over the past two weeks, the breadth, as indicated by the NYSE Advance-Decline Line, has decreased. This decline in breadth does not support the continuation of this rally. Conservative S&P 500 Strategy The Conservative S&P 500 Strategy aims to shield investors from bear markets. It is designed to tolerate short-term declines without triggering sell signals. The strategy's foundation is long-term chart analysis, avoiding decisions based on emotions or news events. It operates on a long-term perspective, allowing for market fluctuations without attempting to time every minor movement. Currently, we maintain a BULLISH position in the Rydex S&P 500 Nova Fund (RYNVX) or other S&P 500 index funds or ETFs such as SPY. S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Current Chart Analysis Last Week's Recap Previously, we highlighted, "The S&P 500 Index (SPX) posted a bullish outside reversal day, suggesting higher highs this week. Consequently, the SPX rose by +1.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) increased by +2.50%, both closing at new highs." This Week's Observation Last week, we discussed the rising stock indexes, particularly the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), which are advancing while their breadth charts, the advance-decline lines, are declining. This indicates that only a few high-performing stocks are driving the indexes higher, while the majority are not participating in the rally. SPX and NYSE A-D Line Analysis The SPX gained +1.5% this week, but the NYSE A-D line fell by -0.21%, signaling a red flag. This suggests that only a limited number of stocks are propelling the SPX to new highs. Market Conditions Stocks reached new all-time highs this week, aided by a tame CPI and the Fed's indication of at least one rate cut this year. Despite this, the lack of breadth support raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally. We hold bullish positions in rising sectors and will exit swiftly upon the anticipated reversal. Predicting the exact duration of the uptrend remains challenging. Bearish Economists Several economists maintain a bearish outlook. Harry Dent, a vocal financial author, predicts a significant market crash, with the SPX potentially dropping by 86% and the Nasdaq by 92%. Notably, prominent economists such as Glenn Hubbard and Lawrence Summers express concerns about persistent inflation, suggesting it remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Market Moving Economic Reports Released this Week 1. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose to 90.5 in May 2024, the highest in five months, from 89.7 in April. 2. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 3.3% in May, below April's reading and market expectations. 3. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate within the 5.25% to 5.5% range, projecting only one rate cut this year. 4. Mortgage applications in the US surged by 15.6% in early June, rebounding from a 5.2% drop in late May. 5. Factory gate prices in the US declined by 0.2% in May, with core PPI inflation slowing to 0%. 6. Unemployment claims in the US increased by 13,000 to 242,000 for the week ending June 8th. 7. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for the US fell to 65.6 in June, the lowest since November. Conclusion The SPX position in this strategy remains BULLISH. Aggressive traders should consider the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund (RYNVX) or other bullish S&P 500 index funds or ETFs such as SPY. |
| Category | Education |
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