Should BALTIC STATES be in NATO? What If Russia Invades?
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Should BALTIC STATES be in NATO? What If Russia Invades? |
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This Video Uploaded At 06-05-2020 08:44:38 |
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Should the Baltic States be in NATO? That is the question I'm trying to answer in this video. Will Russia invade us its possible and if so then what are the most likely scenario? Let me know how I did and if you liked it please SUBSCRIBE!
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Bellow is the script:
Following Russian intervention in Georgia and Ukraine the NATO alliance rediscovered a sense of purpose through its old enemy, Moscow.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union the usefulness of the existence of NATO was in doubt. Yet, NATO continued to exist and even accepted additional member states some of which had been a part of the Soviet Bloc and Warsaw Pact and this included Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia otherwise known as the Baltic States which have been full members of NATO since 2004.
Today, tensions with Russia have heightened and NATO needs to be ready to defend itself from a hypothetical attack from Moscow and with the Baltics being the next most likely target a question must be asked. Are the Baltics a liability or an asset in this tense situation and was it even a good idea to let the baltics into NATO?
The Baltics never hesitate to insist that they are at great risk, but they spend little on their militaries . 2019 Marked the first year when all the Baltic states stepped up and matched NATO’s requirements of 2% defence spending as a percentage of their GDP.
The total defence personnel provided by the Baltics amounts to about 57’000 personnel with 25’000 belonging to Lithuania, 13’300 to Latvia and 18’500 to Estonia. None of the countries possess their own battle tanks, fighter aircraft, large warships or submarines. This certainly means that the defensive capabilities of these countries are questionable and that they are reliant on NATO
In theory, the Baltics provide NATO with useful army bases. Given their precarious location they help increase the strategic depth of NATO’s defences. Also, by being close to important Russian Cities such as Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg they can be good locations to launch attacks from.
Overall however, the Baltics appear to be more of a liability for NATO.
A series of War games performed by RAND corporation predicted that the Baltics could be overwhelmed by Russia in a matter of 60 hours. This nullifies the strategic benefits of having these countries under protection since if Russia chose to, it could seize the military bases there before any offensive or defensive measures were implemented in the region.
Furthermore, NATO’s presence in Poland, Germany and Denmark is much more solid and launching attacks from those countries would be just as prudent if not better.
Also, deploying a large military force in the region as a preemptive defensive measure by NATO would cause tensions and in itself could be construed as an act of war that makes the Baltics practically impossible to defend.
But, because the Baltics are in NATO they must be defended and in theory cannot be abandoned since doing this would make NATO irrelevant especially after the recent lack of a response in Crimea.
Considering these factors it appears that the defense of the Baltics presents NATO with a hard to solve challenge and the consequences of responding to Russian militarily could result in nuclear war. Therefore, we can conclude that the addition of the Baltics to NATO was most likely an oversight.
The cause of this oversight, the assumption that Post Soviet Russia would not be a threat. This may have been true under the rulership of Gorbachev, Yeltsin or Medvedev but not Putin who through his actions in Crimea has shown that Russia still has ambitions and still poses a major threat. |
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